The Brazilian livestock market reaches the last business day of November and the scenario, throughout the month, was one of constant increases in the price of the arroba.
For Fernando Iglesias, analyst at Safras & Mercado, exports were the main basis of this upward movement in prices, with Brazil setting record shipments throughout the year.
“In this scenario, industries found it difficult to compose their slaughter schedules and had to pay increasingly higher prices. Trade has reached the top
historic event this month in São Paulo and Goiás,” he says.
For Iglesias, what draws attention, however, is the sharp drop observed in B3 throughout this week, especially on Thursday (28).
According to him, this phenomenon can be attributed to a trend towards profit-making, with the withdrawal of some industries from the purchase of livestock, coupled with the prospect of an increase in supply, which favored a sharp drop in prices.
“I think the market will already be looking for a correction starting next week, since the drop observed in recent days was very abrupt, without any basis for it. However, perhaps refrigerators can now return to the market with purchase intentions at lower levels,” he evaluates.
Arroba in November x October
Os preços da arroba do boi gordo na modalidade a prazo nas principais praças de comercialização do país estavam assim no dia 28 de novembro:- São Paulo (Capital): R$ 360, an increase of 10.77% compared to the R$ 325 registered in
October Closing - Goiás (Goiânia): 355 reais, an increase of 12.7% compared to 315 reais at the end of last month
- Minas Gerais (Uberaba): 320 reais, an increase of 18.52% compared to 270 reais last month
- Mato Grosso do Sul (Dourados): R$ 345, appreciation of 7.81% compared to R$ 320 in October
- Mato Grosso (Cuiabá): 330 reais, 8.06% above the 310 reais at the end of October
- Rondonia (Vilhena): R$ 310, an increase of 3.33% compared to R$ 300 at the end of last month
Live cattle price expectations in December
For the month of December, Iglesias believes that the expectation is that the live cattle market will register a slightly more accommodative scenario in terms of prices, since that week there was good progress in the slaughter calendars of the slaughterhouses, which already They are closed, the average, between five and seven business days.
“In addition, a good delivery of finished animals in intensive care is expected in the first week of December, which could translate into a new drop in purchase indications,” he details.
Wholesale market
The wholesale market registered a broad appreciation movement due to cuts of meat throughout November. “It remains to be seen whether the consumer will still have the energy to absorb very high price levels without a drop in demand,” says Iglesias.
For the analyst, chicken and pork may be favored, since they still have lower prices than beef.
O quarto do traseiro avançou 13,25% ao longo do mês, passando de R$ 23,40 o quilo para R$ 26,50 o quilo. O quarto do dianteiro subiu 10,81%, de R$ 18,50 para R$ 20,50.Beef exports
Exports of fresh, frozen or refrigerated beef from Brazil generated 875,473 million dollars in November (14 business days), with a daily average of 62,533 million dollars, according to the Ministry of Foreign Trade (Secex).
The total amount exported by the country reached 179,991 thousand tons, with a daily average of 12,856 thousand tons. The average price per ton was US$4,864.00.
According to Secex, in relation to November 2023, there was a 44.9% increase in the average daily value exported, a 36.8% increase in the average daily quantity exported and a 5.9% increase in the price. average.
