European defense dilemma … 800 billion euros is not enough for the independence of armament from America

Europe is experiencing difficult moments with a low confidence in the relationship with the American ally in light of the statements of its President Donald Trump, especially regarding the dispute in the view of the Ukrainian war and the nature of the relationship in Russia.

At the level of “war economy”, which has increased since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe has become more anxious with the spread of uncertainty in its ability to armament away from America. The race with time to reduce the appearance of the continent is powerless if the Americans entered their control of arming the continent in order to blackmail it and impose its vision in international policies related to Russia and China, and many other issues related to Washington’s desire to achieve more profits than its relationship with the Europeans at several levels.

A short time ago, during the outbreak of the first confrontations last December regarding Trump’s statements about his desire to buy and annex the Danish island of Greenland to American sovereignty, the head of the Copenhagen government Mita Friderxen went to launch a permit “Buy buy buy”, in her interview with the Ministry of Defense of her country, and the purchase is intended to buy weapons and ammunition, as well European Ursula von Deerlin her famous statement, “We are ready to contribute to arming the continent,” so and in light of the tension in the relationship between the Atlantic banks and its unprecedented dismissal since the alliance of both sides in World War II, Europe has become seriously looking at the issue of arbitrary independence from America.

In a more correct sense, the European armament race fever is not isolated from the dispute of the two allies over the sources of danger to Europe, the latter insists that the danger is from the east, that is, from Russia, while the American ally sees under the slogan “America first” that the matter is not, and the need to focus on China, and that if the continent is not subject to American reading, it must take off its thorns with its hands, which blows the American security guarantees in Her relationship with the European ally.

Last week, European leaders agreed on a “historical” reinforcing plan, as it was called media and experts, according to which 800 billion euros (872 billion dollars) will be allocated over the next four years to arm their continent. About 150 billion euros will be loans over the next five years, while the other 650 billion euros comes in the context of the contribution of European member states in NATO (NATO) by increasing their defense budgets to 3.5% of GDP. Poland sits on the NATO list in the percentage of defensive spending from local product, by about 4.12% in 2024, and that is a percentage that exceeds the proportion of the American ally estimated at 3.38%, and Spain ranks thirty and is the last rank in the European -Atlantic list with about 1.28% of its gross domestic product.

However, the allocation of about 200 billion euros annually does not seem sufficient to translate “buy”, as Danish called for Verrexen, with intensity and speed, nor to the solution of the European dilemma to enhance defense industries over the old over the old continent to dispense with American industries.

In practice, Europeans realize that the five largest global armament industry companies are American companies, and European defense industries will have to rush to a prosthetic production wheel. Europe who wants to restore life to the arteries of its military industries declining in the years of relaxation period after the 1992 Cold War is pressured, by allocating these funds, on its largest production companies, including the British “BAE Systems”, in addition to companies The French -German “Airbus”, the French “Thuis”, the Italian “Leonardo”, the German “Renmate”, the British “Rolzer” and the Swedish “SABB”.

According to the Stockholm International Institute of Peace Research, France and Germany came between 2020 and 2024 among the five most exporting countries of weapons, and since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, the French arms industry has witnessed a huge boost, but that does not mean that the gap between the needs of Europe’s armament and industrialization on its soil is no longer in place, the Europeans admit that their military industries are very leaving at the levels of air defense, warships and ammunition, The most complicated thing is that their military stores that opened to the Ukrainians deepened that gap, and if their awareness of the dilemma increased in recent years, and some of their companies pushing to benefit from the Ukrainian war.

European figures indicate that before the Ukrainian war, the German company “Renmate” was able to produce 70 thousand 155 mm artillery shells annually, and it is expected by 2027 to increase its production to more than a million shells annually, and by 2022, the French -German company “KNDS” – the German “Caesar” artillery systems every month, and since its date, could have been able According to the French Industries Organization (GICAT), production time decreased by half by 2025, and is able to deliver eight defenders.

MBDA also moved from the production of ten Mistral missiles monthly in 2022, which is used in air defense, to the manufacture of 40 missiles per month today, decreasing the period from the request to the final product for one year.

Although the armament of Europeans from American production decreased from 80% to 60%, according to the French Security Research Center, Iris, the issue of independence from external armament, most of which is an American, will take long years.

According to the statements of Maxim Kurdi, director of research at the French “Iris”, to the Danish Politican newspaper, American and European delivery times are almost identical “and this means that it is no longer any advantage in requesting American products for rapid delivery”, but the issue was always related to quick delivery from America, but that armament purchases were related to American security guarantees, which is that It was established for the relationship with the Ultimate World War II in 1945.

Today, the Europeans are looking at the levels of armaments that these guarantees are no longer a Muslim in it, especially with Trump’s return to the White House last January, and adopting policies similar to his former state (2017-2021) when he gave many doubts about it, which then prompted the former German consultant Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron to put forward European independence from Washington.

The Europeans face their independent desire in the military industries, a problem with a variation in productive capabilities, while France and Germany expresses the ability to expand it, the continent in general has a problem in securing raw materials and employment and expanding the scope of supply chains, after decades of armament and removing some of its industries and associated supply chains, which means that the ability to meet sudden and huge manufacturing increases Al -Harbi is not possible without importing from the outside.

In general, the allocation of 800 billion euros for European arms during the next four years does not mean a fundamental solution to the dilemma of productive decline, as European companies have just started searching for qualified employees in these industries after years of reducing their productivity.

In order to touch the results of the investment of these billions, specialists in the military industries suggest that Europeans stop individual production and go towards determining the required production collectively, such as tanks, missiles, etc., as well as voices calling for the strengthening of the European alternative to the “F35” aircraft in the “Europhyter” fighter made by Airbus, and for these American fighters its story that frightens Europeans as a result of Washington’s ability It disrupts its main systems remotely, which finally prompted Portugal to cancel the purchase of “F35”.

In any case, the path of European arbitrary independence appears to be a long path, amid the increasing arms race in a European -sanginy atmosphere of the future of wars in their continent, and their eyes on what Russia can offer in the Baltic region and the northern countries in general, of course this with others comes in conjunction with what is similar to the absence of certainty of the American defense security umbrella for its allies in Europe, in the absence of the unity of priorities and challenges.