Morocco: Does the government fulfill its promise to reduce unemployment to 9% in 2030?

In light of the ongoing economic crisis and increasing climatic challenges, the Moroccan government announced an ambitious plan aimed at reducing the unemployment rate to about 9% by 2030. This plan is part of the road map for the labor market, which aims to create 1.45 million new job opportunities at the end of the current decade. However, achieving these goals remains hostage to several uninterrupted factors, such as the return of rainfall to their usual levels, stimulating investments, and enhancing the dynamics of the labor market. These factors have made some economic experts with whom “Al -Nahar” contacted question the possibility of achieving these aspirations, considering that the declared numbers do not reflect the complex reality of the labor market in Morocco.

Morocco is witnessing for the sixth consecutive year an unprecedented drought that is the longest in its contemporary history, which directly affected the agricultural sector, which is one of the main pillars of the Moroccan economy, as it contributes about 14% of the gross domestic product. According to official data, drought has lost more than 137,000 jobs in this sector only during the past year, which increased the complexity of the unemployment crisis.

Although the Moroccan government pledged to create a million new jobs during its term that ends next year, the numbers indicate a clear deficit in achieving this goal, especially since the agricultural sector, which relies heavily on rainfalls, was the first affected, which led to a reduction in job opportunities in it and affected the purchasing power of a large number of fragile groups.

In the budget of this year, the Moroccan government allocated about 15 billion dirhams (1.5 billion dollars) to support the labor market and create new jobs. These allocations are distributed in several axes that include 12 billion dirhams (1.2 billion dollars) to stimulate investment, one billion dirhams to maintain job opportunities in the drought -affected rural areas, and two billion dirhams to support employment programs and assist in professional integration.

The government emphasizes that the high unemployment rate is mainly due to the repercussions of the Corona’s pandemic, in addition to the negative impact of the successive years of drought on the agricultural sector. However, according to a publication issued by the Prime Minister, Aziz Akhenouch, the road map for employment includes eight major initiatives to stimulate job opportunities, the most prominent of which is the support of small and medium enterprises by providing motivational financing for projects ranging between one million and 50 million dirhams, and facilitating their access to public deals and export.

Achieving economic growth: bets and challenges
The Moroccan government seeks to achieve an economic growth rate of 4.6% this year, depending on the recovery of non -agricultural sectors, after the Moroccan economy recorded a growth of 3.3% last year. The government is also betting on increasing the area planted with grains to 4 million hectares, in addition to launching an electronic platform to coordinate supply and demand on the agricultural labor, in an attempt to reduce job loss in this vital sector.

However, this ambition comes at a time of disturbing indicators, as the International Monetary Fund expected that the growth of GDP in Morocco will be less than expected, in light of the continued global economic slowdown and the decline in local and foreign investment rates.

Experts ’skepticism: unrealistic promises?
In this context, economist Ahmed Al -Kettani believes that the numbers promoted by the government on creating job opportunities seem far from reality, noting that the real problem is not only the number of declared jobs, but in their sustainability and quality.

“The temporary or unstable functions will not solve the unemployment crisis, but will exacerbate the problem of social fragility. There is a clear absence of a long -term strategy that guarantees the creation of sustainable job opportunities based on a solid economic base.”

Al -Kettani believes that the government’s excessive dependence on loans to finance operating projects represents a major risk that may exacerbate the debt crisis, noting that “no economy can build its growth on debt alone.”

He also warned that “Morocco has become excessively dependent on borrowing, which threatens its financial stability in the long run,” stressing that the Moroccan government “must adopt alternative policies such as reducing unnecessary spending, fighting rent, and encouraging productive industries.”

Unemployment: Between the decline in the quality of education and the migration of minds
For his part, Abdel -Latif Gedoudi, an expert in public policies and governance, believes that the real problem is not only in unemployment, but in the incompatibility of the labor market with education outcomes. He assures “Al -Nahar” that “education is the main key to creating job opportunities. But in Morocco, the illiteracy rate is still high, as more than 10 million people suffer from illiteracy, which exceeds 25% of society.”

“Even those who obtain university education find themselves in the face of a bitter reality, as many specializations lack real job opportunities, which pushes thousands of competencies to migrate annually in search of better horizons.”

The expert notes that Morocco annually loses between 8 thousand and 12 thousand frameworks and efficiency due to migration to Europe and Canada, which increases the depletion of human capital.

Jadoudi also draws to the phenomenon of rural displacement towards cities, where it is passed annually between 60 thousand and 120 thousand people from villages to the major cities in search of job opportunities, which exacerbates unemployment in cities, and the spread of worry social phenomena such as random housing, street vendors, and increasing rates of poverty and fragility.

Do the government bet on the weather instead of effective policies?
He criticizes the constant links between creating job opportunities and rainfall, considering that this reflects the weak economic planning, assuring “Al -Nahar”: “The betting on the weather is a strategic mistake. Successful governments are the ones that depend on studied industrial and investment policies, not on the mood of nature.”

He concludes his speech, stressing that addressing the unemployment crisis requires radical structural reforms that begin to qualify the education system, enhance vocational training, fight corruption and rent, and stimulate productive investment, instead of being satisfied with launching promises that are difficult to achieve on the ground.