Why will Netanyahu return to the war decision?

Since the announcement of the three stages of a ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners at the end of the Baiden administration, and with the encouragement of the elected president, Donald Trump, it was evident that the Netanyahu government did not intend to implement it in bulk, but “in the sect.”

Netanyahu, who had previously presented the same proposal to Biden before announcing the agreement on it, had retracted his proposal after realizing that his implementation would lead his government coalition to explore. His position has not changed since then until now. The implementation of the agreement, as it was, is rejected not only by the ministers of Autasma, Judait, who withdrew due to the acceptance of the implementation of the first stage, nor from the ministers of religious Zionism, who linked their survival to the refusal to start implementing the second stage, but also the refusal of many of the Likud ministers. It is known that Netanyahu agreed to the stages deal as a kind of compulsion and with the aim of blowing up the agreement at the first opportunity.

Netanyahu knew that, as much as he had a margin of maneuvering at the Biden administration, he has no margin of this kind with the Trump administration, which he deals with as if it were a kind of nature disasters that are desirable to avoid clash with it.

The Trump administration initially started that the stages agreement is good to end this crisis, but, and, as far as it was going through, it became close to the Israeli position. Trump’s warnings and repeated threats of Hamas, not only about the prisoners, but also about its existence.

It is clear that when the extremist Israeli right noted that Trump wraps and encouraged Netanyahu on the right side, especially after he presented the Gaza displacement plan, Netanyahu’s situation became weaker. It is true that Netanyahu relaxed at one time to the fact that it has become closer to the middle between a majority of popularity and a security and military institution calling for the implementation of the stages agreement, and a right -wing majority that rejects it. It seemed that with the end of the first stage, Netanyahu returned to his favorite site as an ideological leader for the extreme right.

This Israeli decision came after a security session chaired by Netanyahu, with the participation of the Minister of War and senior security officials and the negotiating team, during which they adopted the outlines proposed by the US President’s envoy, Steve Witkev, for a temporary ceasefire during the month of Ramadan and Easter.

The release of half of the Israeli prisoners includes alive and dead, on the first day of the agreement, and in the end the release of the remaining prisoners, alive and dead, if an agreement is reached on a permanent ceasefire.

It is not a coincidence that Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkeov, and after his strong and repeated statements about the necessity of implementing the second stage, even with his recognition that it is more difficult than the first stage, he returned to present the Netanyahu proposal.

Thus was the failed Israeli attempt to continue the exchange of prisoners according to the exchange keys that were agreed upon for the “humanitarian stage”. Perhaps to encourage Hamas to accept this game, it was talked about ready to grant more Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli neighborhood prisoner.

It meets the plan of the entire demands of Israel, as it allows the prisoners to be released in two batches, and the need to declare Israel to declare a permanent shooting with an American guarantee.

This gives Netanyahu a political opportunity, as the plan is postponed with Battleer Smotrich in the coalition, and allows the approval of the government’s budget this month (if the budget is not approved this month, the government, according to the law, will fall and early elections will be announced).

But Hamas’s story is not only a prisoner exchange, with two other sides of the exchange of the exchange deal, namely ending the war and reconstruction. And Israel does not want to enter into any discussion to end the war or reconstruction without achieving “the goals of the war.”

In other words, Israel wants to achieve negotiations as it failed to achieve the war: destroying Hamas, ending its authority, removing the Gaza Strip, and preventing it from pose any future danger to it. For this reason, the Arab proposals also rejected the reconstruction of Gaza and the Egyptian formula for the administration of government affairs in Gaza.

As soon as Hamas rejected the American proposal that he presented and is at a distance, it seemed to Netanyahu that his chance to coup against the official stages agreement had come. Thus, instead of offering new suggestions, he took advantage of American support, and announced the closure of all the crossings through which humanitarian aid and the stop of fuel and gas supplies. Not only that, but a government decision was announced to recruit reserve forces that may number 400,000.

Thus, Israel, with American support, “fans” unilaterally, the ceasefire agreement and the exchange of prisoners by refusing to implement two central steps: evacuating the Philadelphia axis, and starting the negotiations of the second stage.

Here, the Booker game began with all the threat and fraudulent means. Hamas, which had previously announced its desire to negotiate at once to end the war, exchange all prisoners and reconstruction, was forced to respond to the exchanges of exchange keys to demand between 500 to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli prisoner, according to his status and rank. And everyone in his head realized that the two sides were heading to a collision path.

Hamas, for its part, is not ashamed to go to the fighting, especially since it has contained most of the Israeli violations that took place since the beginning of the first stage. Also, Israel, which is looming to the war, is aware of it, at least, at least, for internal, regional and international considerations.

Netanyahu’s position by going to war is weak in front of the majority of the Israeli street, which sees the priority to release the prisoners by negotiating and paying the price. Also, despite Trump’s threats to Hamas and his announcement that he will support every decision by Israel, he tries to draw for himself the image of the leader who ends wars and not someone who ignites it.

In addition, the resumption of the war puts Arab countries in front of difficult options, especially as it found an objection from Israel and not from Hamas on its plans for Gaza.

Perhaps for these reasons, Israel is trying to exploit several pressure crafts that it currently possesses instead of returning to the war that will not stand at the Gaza border. There is from within the army and the security establishment who believes that a question mark should be placed on Trump’s positions, because it is impossible to know when it will “change” its course and stop its support.

The second reason is that the new military supplies, especially from the bombs, penetrated shelters, are intended primarily to be a tactical means of strategic repercussions, through which Israel is considering attacking Iran at some point.

It is true that Israel suggests that returning to the war on Gaza is at the doors, or that military pressure will escalate in the near days, which is not impossible in the right of Netanyahu’s government.

But there are things that cannot be ignored, such as changing the Israeli chief of staff and the consequent approval of new plans, then the differences within the government coalition due to the law of recruitment of Haredim and the vote in the Knesset on the public budget.

In general, there is confidence in Israel that Witkeov will try to complete the deal with the spirit of the outlines he set.

Israel, which has already officially announced its approval on the outlines of his proposal, is trying to help him through a negotiating strategy based on the brink of the brink of the abyss and extremism in positions, all of this with the hope that he will be able to get the negotiating vehicle out of the mud that Netanyahu engineered things to reach.

“At the present time, all the balls are in the air, and there is no clear sign of the place where it will fall. The mediators are currently persuading Hamas to accept the new Witakouf plan. Israel has already agreed to it. Therefore, the families of the prisoners will continue to suffer, and the nerves of the Israeli people will continue to exhaust, and Hamas will continue to launch a psychological warfare that is increasing And cruelty, because this is the only way you have to influence decision makers in Israel. ” This is until the negotiations are over.

In any case, lawyer Orel Lin warned in Maariv that: “There is no longer a place or a place for allegations, explanations and interpretations. The exchange deal, the second stage, must be finished quickly, in a period of time that does not exceed a few weeks, otherwise, there will be a national earthquake that has never been unparalleled until today, not even after the war of forgiveness. It would be possible to be raised in the coming years.

The opposition leader, Yair Labid, strongly criticized the decision of the Netanyahu government, saying: “The prisoner deal has been suspended. Aid has been suspended to Gaza. The government agreed to mobilize 400,000 reserve soldiers. What is the goal? What is the goal that Netanyahu set for himself? Did the government decide to give up the prisoners? The goal of the war?