Abdullah Al-Haqim 
Poland lives on the impact of the election campaigns in preparation for the presidential race scheduled for May 18, and Europe closely monitors whether the cabinet headed by Donald Tusk, loyal to Europe, will obtain an ally in the presidential palace at a difficult time for Poland and Europe.
Poland occupies a strategic location in Europe, as it is the fifth largest country in the European Union in terms of population, and has strong influence within European institutions such as Parliament and European Commission.
Historically, Poland played a major role in European political transformations, starting with the resistance of Soviet hegemony in the twentieth century, through the “Solidarity” movement led by Lech Founda, which contributed to the overthrow of communism, to its current role as a major ally of the West in the face of Russian threats.
The main candidates
Several candidates representing mixed political currents are competing in these elections, starting with supporters of the European Union to extremist national and right currents.
- Rafao Chskovsky
The candidate of the “Civil Platform” party, and he is the mayor of Warsaw, and is one of the most prominent defenders of European integration. It focuses on liberal democracy issues, supported Ukraine, and promoting civil freedoms.
- Carol Nauruki
The candidate “Law and Justice, a governor calling for the strengthening of Polish sovereignty, focuses on national security issues, and supporting close relations with the United States, despite the differences with the Donald Trump administration.
The leader of the Poland 2050, calls for an average approach that combines national values and European orientation, with a focus on social and economic reforms.
- Slavomer Mintsen
The far -right candidate from the “Confederation” party refuses to receive refugees, opposes any military or economic support to Ukraine, and calls for strengthening the economic independence of Poland.
- Magdalina Payat and Adrian Zandberg
The Polish left candidates focus on social justice, increase the role of the state in the economy, and adopt a more balanced foreign policy towards the European Union and the United States.
- Grizogor Brown
A right -wing candidate, known for his anti -European position, rejects the presence of American forces in Poland, and calls for isolationism.
Issues affecting the elections
- Ukrainian war:
The war in Ukraine and the defensive policies it follows, whether at the level of Poland or at the European level, in addition to the pressure of the economy and other issues a role in directing the voters in the upcoming presidential elections.
With the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Poland played a major role in supporting Kiev, whether by providing military aid or hosting millions of Ukrainian refugees.
As the war continued, the costs of this support became a sensitive political issue, as the positions of the candidates vary at 3 levels:
1- Absolute support for Ukraine (as with Chaskovsky and Holonia).
2- Conditional support (such as Nauruki’s position, which puts Polish interests first).
3- Refusing to support permanently (as calls for extremist right candidates such as Mintsen and Bruun).
- Relations with Washington
After President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US elections, fears in Europe prevailed about Washington’s adoption of a more isolationist approach.
During his election campaign, Trump threatened to reduce his country’s support for NATO (NATO), and called on European countries to bear greater costs to defend themselves.
Conservative candidates, such as Nauruki, seek to keep the Polish -American relations strong despite the difficulty of dealing with Trump, while liberal candidates like Chaskovsky tend to enhance partnership with the European Union instead of total dependence on Washington.
As for the extremist right candidates, such as Brown and Mingsen, they claim to reduce dependence on Washington and Brussels, and focus on a more independent foreign policy.
- Economy and social pressure
Poland suffers from serious economic repercussions due to inflation and high cost of living, which were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia.
The right -wing parties take advantage of this crisis to call to reduce external aid and focus on improving internal economic conditions.
- The position on the war on Gaza
Although Poland was one of the first European countries to formally recognize the State of Palestine since 1988, its official position on the recent Israeli aggression on Gaza remained hesitant.
While the current government did not condemn Israel directly, for fear of the impact of this on its relationship with Washington, the opposition, especially from the left, called for a more clear position in condemning the Israeli massacres.
The Polish civil society has witnessed protests in support of Palestine, and this puts pressure on the candidates to take bolder positions.
Possible scenarios
The upcoming presidential elections put the country in front of a crossroads in foreign policies, so every candidate imposes a different scenario if others won.
In the event that Chaskovsky (European liberal) win, it is expected to strengthen Poland’s relations with the European Union, and the continued support of Ukraine, but with discussing diplomatic solutions to end the war, a more open position towards refugees and a balance in relations with Washington.
In the event that Navrotsky (conservative national) win, it is expected to strengthen cooperation with the United States, despite the difficulty of dealing with the Trump administration and increasing military spending, while keeping support for Ukraine limited and more strict policies towards immigrants and refugees.
In the event that the right -wing right candidate of Mintsen or Brown wins, it is expected that more rapprochement with Russia or adopting a more isolationist policy, in addition to stopping support for Ukraine, reducing cooperation with the European Union, refusing to receive refugees and tightening internal laws.
Voter trends
The “Ebris” poll showed the “Events” program of “Bulasat” that Rafaa Chaskovsky tops the first round of the elections with an support rate of 35.7%.
On the other hand, Carol Navrotski, the candidate of the “Law and Justice” party, obtained an support rate of 25.6%, and this indicates a difference of about 10 percentage points in favor of Chskovsky.
As for Shimon Hofna, the leader of the Poland 2050, he won a rate of support of 15.2%, and this makes him third among the candidates.
These figures indicate that Chaskovsky has succeeded in strengthening his electoral position, taking advantage of the decline in the popularity of the “Law and Justice” party in recent months.
On the other hand, Hofna’s support reflects the desire of a segment of voters to adopt moderate policies that combine European trend with internal reforms.
Possible change
As the election campaigns continue, the Polish political scene will remain changing, and the next debates and events may play a decisive role in determining the end of the voters. However, the current progress of Tchskovsky indicates a change in Poland’s political leadership in the upcoming elections.
The Polish presidential elections constitute a decisive moment that determines the future of Poland, and its impact on the European and international scene, in light of the escalation of global tensions.
Warsaw’s decisions will be influential in major files such as Ukraine and the future of the European Union, and the results will reveal whether Poland will continue its current path or will go towards a more isolated national approach.
