Abdullah Al-Haqim 
The preparations, training and military maneuvers conducted by the American and Israeli forces that mimic a possible and large blow to the Iranian interior, are the nuclear or oil installations, if they happen, it will be a very dangerous event. Its danger can result in complications in the region.
Iran can give up its cautious policy in the face of Americans and Israelis to exceed red lines that have not exceeded, neither with Washington nor with Tel Aviv.
Of course, Iran cannot face the two parties in a wide and open battle. Tehran cannot rely on its alliance with Russia, while the latter has been neglected to end its catastrophic war with Ukraine under American sponsorship. As for China, it is far from confrontation in general, although it is interested in protecting Iran’s annoying politics and interests.
But despite the seriousness of any possible attack on Iran, with regard to the internal situation, the fact that one of the most important goals of any strike on Iran is to create a state of collapse of the regime in front of a wave of protests that could explode as it receives an American-Israeli blow that breaks the prestige of the regime, the continuation of Israel and the United States, so the recklessness of the Iranian front in the Middle East may be the fastest way to the regime’s collapse from within.
From here, it is possible to understand the Western intelligence estimates, which were revealed recently about the importance and danger of Iran’s loss of the Iraqi scene due to the American pressure on the economy, and therefore on the Iraqi street that appears to be the features of a state of social and economic boiling, in addition to the state of sectarian and ethnic conflicts, shrouded on the outbreak of astronomical corruption that sweeps all levels of official and unofficial authority.
Hence, the decomposition of the Iraqi scene and its direction towards political and institutional collapse, with Iraq, who is sentenced to the alliance of factions, parties, and figures linked to Tehran for an Israeli and American military and military strikes targeting infrastructure for the popular crowd, and military and security figures from the crowd exactly as happened with “Hezbollah” in Lebanon, can lead to a political collapse of the ruling composition since 2003 and a greater collapse Political and security investment for the Iranian revolution since 1979.
This is the strike that a number of experts specializing in Iranian affairs are the killing of the Iranian regime, while drying its sources of financing in difficult currencies from the Iraqi arena, to the extent that the Iranian interior will see this collapse, which follows the collapse of the Syrian scene and before the Lebanese scene a kind of indication that the days of the Iranian regime are numbered.
Accordingly, the push of the Iraqi arena governed by Tehran towards the collapse will result in regional complications for all the previous regional construction established by Qassem Soleimani, and the interior in Iran. The importance of destroying the Iranian construction in Iraq instead of launching an overwhelming military strike against the Iranian territories itself will prevent Tehran from direct response, and will restrict it and push it to retire within its borders, while losing the margins of movement and maneuver against the United States and Israel, and their allies in the region. It will also be removed from Moscow, not to intervene to help its Iranian ally, and will restrict China’s ability to help to the maximum.
Based on the foregoing, the Iraqi scene appears to be a candidate for very dangerous developments in the coming weeks. Therefore, it is said that the possibility of losing Iraq greatly disturbs the Iranian leadership, and that the vibration of Iranian influence in the Iraqi scene may push Iran and its related factions to risk raising the issue of division, and the establishment of a Shiite cantalit that extends from the south to the north of the capital, Baghdad, including oil -rich areas. This offering is not an orphan. Rather, former Prime Minister Nuri al -Maliki put it publicly in front of the media.
More than that, and with the disclosure of the American demands that were submitted to the current Prime Minister Muhammad Shi’a Al -Sudani, it is important to realize the Iranian position in Iraq; What is required is according to the information that was nominated from the Western media and open intelligence sources that the solution of the “popular crowd” tops requests, in addition to cutting sources of financing in the difficult currencies that the Iranian regime benefits from, and last not least to make changes to the formation of power and the armed forces.
In any case, we are not surprised that the most likely evaluation of Iran’s position tends to consider the Iraqi scene the last of the external squares, which constitute a political, security, military and financial outlet for the Iranian regime. And if the scale is reversed in Iraq, the Iranian interior will be greatly affected without the American and the Israeli being involved in a war that has no popularity in the United States or in Israel itself. So all eyes on Iraq are the last squares!
