Faisal Abbas 
New York Stock Exchange, February 12, 2025 (Angela Weiss/France Press)
GB Morgan Chase strategic analyzes indicate that American stocks make the risk of stagnation much more than what the credit markets reflect, leaving room for positive surprises, which called them to expect that the worst in the last corrective wave has already ended.
In a recent report, Bloomberg’s economists said that although US stock fluctuations and credit margins are usually moved in parallel, they started to spoil this year with the decline in Standard and Poor’s 500 index, amid fears that President Donald Trump’s policies may hinder economic growth. According to a memorandum written by Nikolaos Panagirzoglu and Mika Inkinin, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index reflects a 33% possibility of recession in the United States, while credit markets reflect the possibilities of only 9% and 12%.
The strategists stated in the memo: “Although there is a state of lack of certainty in the short term, as the Trump administration gave priority in principle to more disturbing policies, the risk is that credit markets are the right party in estimates.”
American stocks declined amid the lack of clear vision
American stocks witnessed a decline in this quarter, due to fears of the impact of Trump’s commercial policies and his vision of governmental government employment on the economy. The markets have been increased losses due to the lack of clarity in the timing and size of customs duties, prompting some of the market analysts to alleviate their optimism.
Goldman Sachs and Yardini Research Company reduced their targets of the Standard & Poor’s 500 this week, while the analysis teams in the City Group and HSBC groups reduced its recommendations on American stocks. For his part, Michael Wilson expected the investment bank Morgan Stanley that the index would decrease an additional 2% to 5,500 during the first half of the year.
The Standard & Poor’s index entered 500 weeks of declines, as the rapid sale wave turned into a trump betting for last year. Mechanical sales flows, and the disposal of debt by hedge funds, in conjunction with the collapse of market morale, has made it difficult to find a level of support for shares so far.
On the other hand, the NASDAC 100 index performance was weak this year, as investors disposed of high -cost technology shares, amid concerns about competition and high costs in the field of artificial intelligence.
Signs of stability approaching
However, there is one indication of technology shares indicating that the wave of sale has reached its climax, as the volume of trading on the Investco QQ TRST Series Fund of the Nasdaq 100 index exceeded 75 million shares this week, a level that was an indication of the market bottom on three previous occasions during the past twenty months.
The shares may also receive additional support from the monthly or quarterly balance of the joint investment funds and pension funds with specified benefits in the United States, in addition to some sovereign wealth funds, whose investment value may reach 135 billion dollars, according to the strategies of the GB Morgan Bank.
They also pointed out that “if the indisposition funds for American stocks continue to record cash flows entering as is the case until now, there is a good opportunity for the largest part of the current American stock market to be behind us.”
