A strategic report that monitors the dimensions and developments of the war between Morocco and Algeria

Under the title “The Creative Prospects for Improved Relations between Morocco and Algeria”, the Oxford Analytica Foundation specialized in consulting and strategic analyzes published a report in which it confirmed that “any war between Morocco and Algeria will lead to new waves of migration towards Europe and the disruption of trade in the Mediterranean.”

The same report stated that “the tension between the two countries exists without signs of calm, although both seek to avoid war; Morocco shows its caution towards the Algerian military capabilities, while Algeria looks with suspicion of Morocco’s relations with France, the United States and Israel. At a time when both parties seek to enhance their influence in the coast and Europe by providing investments, security partnerships and closer diplomatic ties.

Oxford Analytica registered that “Morocco and Algeria may approach an unintended escalation in the desert, after the ceasefire agreement in November of the year 2020” collapsed, highlighting at the same time that “calm between the two countries depends heavily on restraint by their leaderships; It is mostly stemming from unknown concerns, as no party guarantees a victory in a war that may destroy their national legitimacy and fuel internal instability.

At the level of military accounts, the report indicated an increase in the defensive budget of Algeria compared to Morocco; However, he stressed that “Rabat has two important advantages, which are to buy American weapons and equipment regularly, and in cooperation with Israel, and this indicates that Morocco is making its army more quickly than Algeria, including in the field of electronic warfare and drones, as well as in the air defenses.”

The document issued by the institution specialized in consulting and strategic analyzes considered that “in the event of war, Morocco can secure emergency support from the United States, Israel and France; While Algeria continues to rely on Russia, “noting that” Morocco hopes that Washington will support its position on the desert, especially after Trump’s recognition of Rabat’s sovereignty over the region, in addition to the adoption of his foreign minister, Marco Rubio, for public positions in support of Morocco and an opposition to Algeria, because of the latter’s military cooperation with Russia. “

On the nature of the positions that the Trump administration can adopt in this direction, the report explained that “there are two scenarios on future American policy towards North Africa. The first is the withdrawal of Washington simply from the region, which is of limited importance to its interests, and the second is America publicly supporting Morocco, “recording that” none of the scenarios would remove a major obstacle to unintended escalation in the region, with the Trump administration hesitating to intervene to reduce tensions as its previous administration did. “

The same source considered that “the possibility of a direct conflict between the two countries is still small; But there are some factors that may increase this danger in the coming years, “stressing a relationship with the internal situation of the” Polisario “front that” there is those within the movement who see that the current situation, which the front calls “a war of attrition” with Morocco, has not achieved results; Rather, they are afraid that independence has become an increasingly weak possibility, which puts pressure on driving to escalate.