Najm Abdulkarim 
A calm prevailed today (Monday) on the Lebanese -Syrian border after a night that witnessed a violent escalation and artillery clashes and missiles in the Qasr -Hermel area, amid developments that suggest field changes that may redraw the border scene between the two countries.
Despite the continued contacts between the Lebanese army leadership and the Syrian authorities to control security, the question remains: Is what happened just a passing incident, or is it a prelude to wider strategic transformations?
According to the official accounts, the events erupted after the killing of 3 Syrian soldiers belonging to the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al -Sham, which prompted the Syrian Ministry of Defense to accuse Hezbollah of carrying out the operation inside Syrian territory. In response, the Syrian forces bombed the Lebanese border intensively and randomly using artillery and missiles, which led to a wide wave of displacement for the residents of the targeted areas towards the city of Hermel.
Night escalation came after weeks of confrontations between the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al -Sham and clans loyal to Hezbollah in the Syrian border areas, as Shiite influence is concentrated in 22 geographically intertwined villages with Lebanese territory.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Hezbollah has strengthened its control over this region, and turned it into a strategic corridor linking Lebanon, the countryside of Homs and Al -Qusair, which made it an essential point for smuggling weapons, money, drugs, and commercial materials between the two countries. However, the fall of the Syrian regime led to radical changes in the scene, most notably the displacement of about 35,000 people from Homs countryside and Al -Qusair to the northern Bekaa.
However, the 22 border villages remained inhabited, which made them a “Bridge Bridge” for Hezbollah towards the Syrian interior. However, the new Syrian leadership, led by Ahmed Al -Shara, took a strategic decision to implement a military operation to regain control of the region, which led to the displacement of Lebanese clans, and cut the last geographical lines of Hezbollah with Syria. As a result, the Lebanese -Syrian border was completely closed, and all illegal crossings were brought up, with the exception of that incident in Akkar, which is still active.
From the perspective of Damascus, this process is a decisive step to end any border influence of Hezbollah, in order to achieve two goals: enhancing Syria’s internal security, and improving its relations with friendly and sister Arab countries, in addition to that these operations led to a clear demographic change, by removing the Shiite Lebanese from the Syrian border villages, in a move that is explained as a re -drawing of regional balances.
As for Hezbollah, it believes that these developments cannot be separated from the increasing Israeli pressures to surround and weaken it. The party finds itself between two fires: from the south, where the continuous Israeli escalation, and from the east, where Damascus is narrowed by the screws. As this double pressure continues, the eastern border is not unlikely to turn into a new party’s drain front and its incubator environment.
For his part, an observer Lebanese source considered that what is happening may be a step within a broader plan to completely surround Lebanon, from Rashaya to the factory, and from the bottom to Hermel, as a continuation of the blockade imposed on Hezbollah.
He added that these developments may open the door to strengthening the role of the Lebanese army in the region, and may lead to the idea of expanding the scope of the work of international forces operating in the south, to include the Lebanese -Syrian border in the Bekaa, which may impose a new security equation on the entire Lebanese scene.
In light of these developments, the question remains open: Will these events remain within the framework of limited confrontations, or are they an introduction to a strategic change that imposes new facts on the ground?
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